Draft Nuggets Blog for The Ticket.Com #1

The Offseason Awaits:

No sooner does this magical Cowboys season end (on a blown call) that they must hurriedly pick themselves up, dust themselves off and prepare for the 2015-16 season. And for Draftniks like myself, this is where the real fun begins. The NFL offseason is where champions are forged, from the management and coaches down to the plays and players. How a team addresses the questions posed in the offseason directly determines if they have the answers during the season, in the playoffs and ultimately in the Superbowl. As Tom Landry once said “The secret to winning is constant, consistent management.” And for the Cowboys team, many questions lie ahead.

So let’s begin by looking at the road ahead, the 2015 Cowboys situation and a few of the questions that await.

The Road Ahead:

Technically the NFL Offseason begins the day after the Superbowl. However, the work that goes into scouting college talent, negotiating the salary cap and contracts and acquiring assets reach far back even before training camp. Here is a look at the calendar ahead for this offseason right up until the NFL Draft and some of the big stops along the way:

Jan. 15 Deadline for underclassmen to declare for the 2015 NFL Draft

Jan. 17  East-West Shrine Game (St. Petersburg, Fla.)

Jan. 18  Conference Championships

Jan. 24  Senior Bowl (Mobile, Ala.)

Jan. 25  2015 Pro Bowl (University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz., 8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Feb. 1    Super Bowl XLIX (University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz., 6 p.m. ET, NBC)

Feb. 2    Waiver system begins for 2015

Feb. 7    NFL Regional Combine (Davie, Fla.)

Feb. 14 NFL Regional Combine (Houston)

Feb. 16 First day for clubs to designate Franchise or Transition Players

Feb. 17-23           NFL Scouting Combine (Indianapolis)

Feb. 21 NFL Regional Combine (Dove Valley, Colo.)

Feb. 28 NFL Regional Combine (Owings Mills, Md.)

March 2                Prior to 4 p.m. ET, deadline for clubs to designate Franchise or Transition Players

March 7                NFL Regional Combine (Lake Forest, Ill.)

March 7-10         Clubs are permitted to contact, and enter into contract negotiations with the certified agents of players who will become Unrestricted Free Agents upon the expiration of their 2014 contracts at 4 p.m. ET on March 10. However, a contract cannot be executed with a new club until 4 p.m. ET on March 10

March 10             Prior to 4 p.m. ET, clubs must exercise options for 2015 on all players who have option clauses in their 2014 contracts

                Prior to 4 p.m. ET, clubs must submit qualifying offers to their Restricted Free Agents with expiring contracts and to whom they desire to retain a Right of First Refusal/Compensation

                Prior to 4 p.m. ET, clubs must submit a Minimum Salary Tender to retain exclusive negotiating rights to their players with expiring 2014 contracts and who have fewer than three accrued seasons of free agency credit

                Top-51 Begins. All clubs must be under the 2015 salary cap prior to 4 p.m. ET

                All 2014 player contracts expire at 4 p.m. ET

                2015 league year and free agency period begins (4 p.m. ET)

                Trading period for 2015 begins (4 p.m. ET)

March 19-21       NFL Career Development Symposium (Phoenix)

March 21-22       Super Regional Combine (Phoenix)

March 22-25       NFL Annual Meeting (Phoenix)

April 6   Clubs that hired a new head coach after the end of the 2014 regular season may begin offseason workout programs

April 20 Clubs with returning head coaches may begin offseason workout programs

April 24 Deadline for Restricted Free Agents to sign offer sheets

April 29 Deadline for prior club to exercise Right of First Refusal to Restricted Free Agents

April 30-May 2  NFL Draft (Chicago)

That’s right, this year’s NFL Draft is not at Radio City in NYC but in Chicago, and The Ticket will have your coverage wall-to-wall as no other station in America does.

The Draft Evaluation Process Begins:

With the College Football season coming to an end tomorrow night at AT&T Stadium, the college postseason games begin this week with the East/West Shrine Game. This game usually features some smaller school or lesser known types, but always yields some quality talent (like Rams RB Zac Stacy in 2013 and 2^nd round QB Jimmy Garopplo in 2014). Practices begin this week and the game is Saturday Jan 17^th. Here’s a look at this year’s roster (with a few Big 12 kids highlighted):

EAST TEAM Coach: Mike Singletary

Quarterbacks

Anthony Boone, Duke

Taylor Heinicke, Old Dominion

Hutson Mason, Georgia

Running backs

Larry Dixon (FB), Army

Dominique Brown, Louisville

Kenny Hilliard, LSU

Terrence Magee, LSU

Receivers

Gerald Christian (TE), Louisville

Andre Davis, South Florida

Devin Gardner, Michigan

Deon Long, Maryland

Tre McBride, William & Mary

Keith Mumphery, Michigan State

Wes Saxton (TE), South Alabama

Darren Waller, Georgia Tech

Offensive linemen

David Andrews, Georgia

Ben Beckwith, Mississippi State

Jamon Brown, Louisville

Dillon Day, Mississippi State

Jonathan Feliciano, Miami (Fla.)

Mark Glowinski, West Virginia

Sean Hickey, Syracuse

Shane McDermott, Miami (Fla.)

Darrian Miller, Kentucky

John Miller, Louisville

Defensive linemen

Anthony Chickillo, Miami (Fla.)

B.J. Dubose, Louisville

Darius Kilgo, Maryland

Derrick Lott, Tennessee-Chattanooga

Jermauria Rasco, LSU

Za'Darius Smith, Kentucky

Davis Tull, Tennessee-Chattanooga

Leterrius Walton, Central Michigan

Daryl Waud, Western University (Ontario)

 Linebackers

Cole Farrand, Maryland

Amarlo Herrera, Georgia

Deiontrez Mount, Louisville

Quayshawn Nealy, Georgia Tech

Edmond Robinson, Newberry College

Jake Ryan, Michigan

Defensive backs

Detrick Bonner (S), Virginia Tech

Justin Coleman (CB), Tennessee

Parrish Gaines (S), Navy

Craig Mager (CB), Texas State

Dean Marlowe (S), James Madison

Ronald Martin, Jr. (S), LSU

Damian Parms (S), Florida Atlantic

Tye Smith (CB), Towson

Damian Swann (CB), Georgia

Cam Thomas (CB), Western Kentucky

Specialists

Marvin Kloss (K), South Florida

Spencer Roth (P), Baylor

WEST TEAM

Coach: Jim Zorn

Quarterbacks

Cody Fajardo, Nevada

Taylor Kelly, Arizona State

Dylan Thompson, South Carolina

Running backs

Malcolm Brown, Texas

John Crockett, North Dakota State

Aaron Ripkowski (FB), Oklahoma

Zachary Zenner, South Dakota State

Receivers

Blake Bell (TE), Oklahoma

Kenny Bell, Nebraska

A.J. Derby (TE), Arkansas

Austin Hill, Arizona

MyCole Pruitt (TE), Southern Illinois

Addison Richards, Regina (Saskatchewan)

Ezell Ruffin, San Diego State

Jordan Taylor, Rice

Kasen Williams, Washington

Offensive linemen

Mickey Baucus, Arizona

Brett Boyko, UNLV

Cameron Clemmons, Western Kentucky

Jamil Douglas, Arizona State

B.J. Finney, Kansas State

Gregory Mancz, Toledo

Terry Poole, San Diego State

Collin Rahrig, Indiana

Adam Shead, Oklahoma

Brandon Vitabile, Northwestern

Defensive linemen

James Castleman, Oklahoma State

Tyeler Davison, Fresno State

Kyle Emanuel, North Dakota State

Chucky Hunter, TCU

Martin Ifedi, Memphis

David Parry, Stanford

Travis Raciti, San Jose State

Ryan Russell, Purdue

Xavier Williams, Northern Iowa

Linebackers

Bryce Hager, Baylor

Benjamin Heeney, Kansas

Taiwan Jones, Michigan State

A.J. Tarpley, Stanford

James Vaughters, Stanford

Zachary Vigil, Utah State

Tony Washington, Oregon

Defensive backs

Bernard Blake (CB), Colorado State

Bryce Callahan (CB), Rice

Samuel Carter (S), TCU

Corey Cooper (S), Nebraska

Fritz Etienne (S), Memphis

Gregory Henderson (CB), Colorado

Bobby McCain (CB), Memphis

Tevin McDonald (S), Eastern Washington

Jordan Richards (S), Stanford

Curtis Riley (CB), Fresno State

Josh Shaw (CB), USC

Specialists

Darragh O'Neill (P), Colorado

Niklas Sade (K), North Carolina State

We will have highlights, stand-outs and other notes from the Shrine game on next week’s blog.

Where We Stand Today:

As it stands today, the Cowboys are entering into 2015 with around $138 million committed in contract with a projected salary cap of around $140 million. Obviously this does not leave a lot of room for additions, not to mention that this does not include Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray or Ron Leary to name a few. Therefore, some “massaging: of contracts is needed. Here is the complete list of current contracts and dead money for 2015 courtesy of www.overthecap.com:

Contracted Players

Name	Base Salary (Guaranteed)	Bonuses				Cap Number		Dead Money & Cap Savings
		Prorated	Roster	Workout	Other
Tony Romo	$17,000,000 $7,500,000	$10,773,000	$0	$0	$0	$27,773,000		$37,408,000	($9,635,000)
Tyron Smith	$11,039,000 $11,039,000	$2,000,000	$0	$0	$0	$13,039,000		$19,039,000	($6,000,000)
Brandon Carr	$8,000,000	$4,717,000	$0	$0	$0	$12,717,000		$12,151,000	$566,000
Doug Free	$8,000,000	$3,020,000	$0	$0	$0	$11,020,000		$3,980,000	$7,040,000
Henry Melton	$9,000,000	$250,250	$0	$0	$0	$9,250,250		$750,750	$8,499,500
Jason Witten	$5,100,000	$3,412,000	$0	$0	$0	$8,512,000		$5,236,000	$3,276,000
Sean Lee	$2,500,000	$2,950,000	$0	$0	$0	$5,450,000		$9,800,000	($4,350,000)
Morris Claiborne	$2,607,887 $2,607,887	$2,567,182	$0	$0	$0	$5,175,069		$5,175,069	$0
Orlando Scandrick	$1,500,000	$2,851,250	$0	$0	$0	$4,351,250		$6,602,500	($2,251,250)
Mackenzy Bernadeau	$1,500,000	$1,324,168	$0	$0	$0	$2,824,168		$1,324,168	$1,500,000
Dan Bailey	$1,700,000	$800,000	$0	$0	$0	$2,500,000		$3,200,000	($700,000)
Barry Church	$1,750,000	$500,000	$0	$0	$0	$2,250,000		$1,000,000	$1,250,000
Zack Martin	$827,627 $827,627	$0	$0	$0	$0	$2,038,136		$3,705,762	($1,667,626)
Travis Frederick	$1,029,548 $1,029,548	$844,096	$0	$0	$0	$1,873,644		$2,717,740	($844,096)
Jeremy Mincey	$1,500,000 $200,000	$250,000	$0	$0	$0	$1,750,000		$450,000	$1,300,000
Demarcus Lawrence	$670,302 $670,302	$581,209	$0	$0	$0	$1,251,511		$2,893,929	($1,642,418)
Dekoda Watson	$1,250,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$1,250,000		$0	$1,250,000
Gavin Escobar	$787,772	$360,545	$0	$0	$0	$1,148,317		$721,090	$427,227
LP Ladouceur	$1,000,000	$120,000	$0	$0	$0	$1,120,000		$360,000	$760,000
Terrell McClain	$1,000,000	$100,000	$0	$0	$0	$1,100,000		$200,000	$900,000
Amobi Okoye	$870,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$870,000		$0	$870,000
Tyrone Crawford	$675,000	$143,813	$0	$10,000	$0	$828,813		$143,813	$685,000
Terrance Williams	$615,000	$154,868	$0	$10,000	$0	$779,868		$309,736	$470,132
Kyle Wilber	$660,000	$109,805	$0	$0	$0	$769,805		$109,805	$660,000
JJ Wilcox	$595,000	$146,517	$0	$10,000	$0	$751,517		$293,034	$458,483
Josh Brent	$745,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$745,000		$0	$745,000
James Hanna	$660,000	$26,213	$0	$0	$0	$686,213		$26,213	$660,000
Jack Crawford	$660,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$660,000		$0	$660,000
Brandon Weeden	$660,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$660,000		$0	$660,000
Joseph Randle	$585,000	$47,220	$0	$0	$0	$632,220		$94,440	$537,780
Anthony Hitchens	$510,000	$108,716	$0	$0	$0	$618,716		$326,148	$292,568
DeVonte Holloman	$585,000	$26,055	$0	$0	$0	$611,055		$52,110	$558,945
Jakar Hamilton	$585,000	$9,334	$0	$0	$0	$594,334		$9,334	$585,000
Jeff Heath	$585,000	$668	$0	$0	$0	$585,668		$668	$585,000
Devin Street	$510,000	$50,493	$0	$0	$0	$560,493		$151,479	$409,014
Chris Whaley	$510,000	$1,666	$0	$0	$0	$511,666		$3,334	$508,332
Jordan Najvar	$510,000	$500	$0	$0	$0	$510,500		$1,000	$509,500
Keith Smith	$510,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$510,000		$0	$510,000
Dustin Vaughan	$510,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$510,000		$0	$510,000
Tyler Patmon	$510,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$510,000		$0	$510,000
Donald Hawkins	$510,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$510,000		$0	$510,000
Ben Gardner	$435,000	$14,793	$0	$0	$0	$449,793		$44,379	$405,414

 Dead Money

Name	Cap Number
Miles Austin	$5,106,200
Kyle Orton	$2,255,000
B.W. Webb	$221,690
Matt Johnson	$75,146
Uche Nwaneri	$65,000
DeVonte Holloman	$52,110
Will Smith	$37,764
Ken Bishop	$34,422
Terrance Mitchell	$34,422
Ahmad Dixon	$34,422
Dashaun Phillips	$5,000
L’Damian Washington	$4,667
Jarrod Pughsley	$3,334
Josh Aladenoye	$3,334
Chris Boyd	$2,334
Andre Cureton	$2,000
Evan Wilson	$1,667
Marvin Robinson	$1,334
Cody Mandell	$1,334
Ben Malena	$1,334
Keith Smith	$1,334
J.C. Copeland	$1,334
Jocquel Skinner	$1,000
Brian Clarke	$1,000
Joe Windsor	$1,000
Casey Kreiter	$1,000
Ryan Smith	$1,000
Ronald Patrick	$1,000
Davon Coleman	$1,000
Dontavis Sapp	$667
TOTAL	$7,952,849

Options:

1.       Re-doing some key player’s contracts

This is the best option for creating money, guaranteeing more money to guys like Tyron Smith, Scandrick, Melton, Church and others to free up room. The questions becomes “is it enough?”

2.       Re-doing player’s with a less certain status

This option is a little scarier as it charges more money to future salary caps and may come due sooner than the team would like. This list includes players like Romo (injury), Sean Lee (injury), Carr (performance), and Witten (age). The Cowboys have shown no hesitation to exercise this option in the past and I expect that trend will continue, though I think they might want to “start the clock” on some of the money owed to Brandon Carr and Tony Romo just in case their level of play goes south quickly.

3.       Letting some veteran’s go

With this team’s limited depth and shaky draft track record (though remarkably better under Will McClay’s tenure), letting starters walk has not been this team’s usual “process.” Candidates in this category include Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray, Doug Free, Ron Leary, Cole Beasley, Rolando McClain, Justin Durant, Bruce Carter, Sterling Moore and Henry Melton is they exercise his out clause. We will address this in the next section.

Phase #2: Free Agency/Team Needs

Once the money is available, the next issue is how to spend it. The Cowboys have some big names on the verge of hitting free agency and also need to improve the roster in order to get over the hump of playoff contender to championship level. Here’s a list of their pending free agents, again courtesy of www.overthecap.com

Player	Pos.	Team	Type	Current Avg./Year
Doug Free	RT	Cowboys	UFA	$3,500,000
Dez Bryant	WR	Cowboys	UFA	$2,362,100
Anthony Spencer	43DE	Cowboys	UFA	$1,500,000
Jermey Parnell	RT	Cowboys	UFA	$1,354,363
Bruce Carter	ILB	Cowboys	UFA	$1,213,650
Justin Durant	43OLB	Cowboys	UFA	$1,200,000
Josh Brent	DT	Cowboys	UFA	$745,000
DeMarco Murray	RB	Cowboys	UFA	$743,360
Claude Spillman	S	Cowboys	UFA	$730,000
Tony Hills	T	Cowboys	RFA	$730,000
Rolando McClain	ILB	Cowboys	UFA	$700,000
George Selvie	43DE	Cowboys	UFA	$680,000
Nick Hayden	DT	Cowboys	UFA	$680,000
Sterling Moore	CB	Cowboys	UFA	$600,000
Tyler Clutts	RB	Cowboys	UFA	$600,000
Dwayne Harris	WR	Cowboys	UFA	$545,015
Thaddeus Gibson	43DE	Cowboys	RFA	$525,000
Micah Pellerin	CB	Cowboys	ERFA	$495,000
Cole Beasley	WR	Cowboys	RFA	$480,500
Darrion Weems	OL	Cowboys	RFA	$480,000
Lance Dunbar	RB	Cowboys	RFA	$480,000
Ronald Leary	LG	Cowboys	RFA	$455,000

So here is my opinion of the needs of this team going into 2015 in no particular order:

-          Backup QB

-          Running Back (2)

-          Wide Receiver (2)

-          Blocking Tight End

-          Right Tackle (2)

-          Left Guard

-          Defensive End

-          Linebacker (2)

-          Cornerback (2)

Without looking at the rest of NFL free agency (too many variables and too little money to depend on), here is my plan for answering the Cowboys needs though free agency. Remember, no team can fill every spot with pro bowlers. It’s about getting the most out of the available resources in a realistic way. The Draft will be addressed in section 3:

1.       Sign Dez – I know there is much concern about his off-field life, but a true playmaking WR is not as easy to find as some think and is a necessity in today’s pass-happy NFL. I’d be shocked if Dez is wearing any other jersey than a blue 88 next year.

2.       Address RB, either through Murray or Adrian Peterson – The wear and tear that Murray went through this season does not bode well for his career long-term. However, letting the MVP of your previous season walk for nothing won’t make fans happy. We all know about Jerry’s “flirtations” with Peterson prior to his suspension. I think the Cowboys should sign one of these two RBs, probably whichever one comes cheaper.

3.       Sign either Free or Parnell, let the other go – Doug Free and Jeremy Parnell are basically the same player and thus interchangeable. Whichever one takes the better deal I’d sign, then look to sign a backup swing OT on the cheap

4.       Sign Ron Leary to a short term deal – Leary is a monster on run-blocking and a liability in pass-protection. In addition, Leary came into the league with balky knees which is why he went undrafted. Bring him back on the cheap for continuity only and look to upgrade their next year.

5.       Of LBs Durant, McClain and Carter sign 2 cheapest – With the hopeful return of Sean Lee (finger crossed) and the emergence of super-sub Hitchens, The Cowboys need at least 2 starters and a quality backup. McClain has been a find, but might want to cash in on his success. Carter has proven serviceable on the strong side and might be had on a 1 year “prove it” contract. Durant was the team’s best LB prior to injury and has hopefully found a home in Marinelli’s D. Sign the cheapest 2 and let the other walk, addressing that position further in the draft.

6.       Wait til the draft – After these moves, I might wait until the draft to fill in the gaps. Guys like Hayden, Selvie, Moore, Dunbar and Brent can be brought back or replaced at minimum costs.

Phase #3: The Draft

If the offseason breaks as above, the needs for the Cowboys heading into the draft on April 30^th in Chicago will look like this:

-          Backup/Developmental QB

-          Defensive End

-          Cornerback

-          Linebacker

-          Right Tackle

Generally, I think going into the draft you want to have 3-4 real positions to fill. Your 1^st round pick should be a day one starter or immediate contributor (except for a QB), your 2^nd and 3^rd rounders should provide premium depth in rotation and develop into starters and your 4^th and 5^th rounders are more developmental or have flaws that can be addressed. The order in which these needs are addressed then becomes a function of draft position, positional strength and value. Being able to get quality at each pick is the primary goal, though sometimes that means taking value over position or maneuvering to get in the best talent tier.

Looking at the 2015, it is very difficult to assess position strength without knowing which underclassmen will declare. In recent years, the overwhelming number of junior or even RS sophomore declarations have dominating the early rounds and I don’t expect that trend to decrease.

In future posts, I will take a harder look at the players that may be available in the draft and their evaluations as the process rolls on. As we see every year, player’s stock can rise and fall quite a bit before draft night, but it’s good to get a rough estimate before the process begins.