@sportsnarrative
With yet another 8-8 finish to the Dallas Cowboys season,
the time has come to try something different. And while most fans default to
the impossible (“It’s time for Jerry the owner . . .) or the ridiculous (“Let’s
trade Romo and . . .), I will attempt in this blog to stay rational and look at
the team in place from every phase, including my own commentary on the fixes
needed. If you are a die-hard Cowboys fan, just enjoy pro football or are email
friends with Mr. Jones, please forward this post along. The only way we get out
of this, like many other things in life, is through education, determination
and courage. So chin up, Cowboys fan! At least you’re not the Browns.
Phase I: Vision
The first item this team has needed since Bill Parcells left
is vision. A vision for what this team is and what Mr. Jones wants it to be.
This is primarily the role of the GM, the coach and the organization as a
whole. The reason the Steelers are the Steelers or the Patriots are the
Patriots is vision. These two organizations know what they are and know what
type of players they want. Organizations that go chasing the cyclical and
fickle nature of trends for winning in the NFL are almost never successful. So
pick something and stick with it! Though we all know that Jerry is a wildcatter
from his past, I would encourage Mr. Jones to pick one method of drilling, for
the oil is there if you do.
[Commentary: My vision for the Dallas Cowboys goes back to
the glory days of the early 90’s. On offense, I think a run-first scheme with a
powerful offensive line and a timing based passing attack is best. Luckily,
many of those pieces are in place with the exception of the tendencies of the
play-calling (more on that later). On defense, the Cowboys are traditionally a
4-3 scheme built around speed. And while this year’s defensive switch was disastrous,
I believe there is talent to be harnessed and I would stay with the 4-3.
Phase II: Coaching
Staff
Everything about the 2013 Dallas Cowboys coaching staff
seemed off from the very beginning. From the way it was assembled to the
mismatched parts and the outdated schemes, the alarm bells were being sounded
before the first popping of pads ever occurred. Let’s go through the principles
on the staff and evaluate them individually.
Head Coach Jason
Garrett: Whenever a team remains in mediocrity, it is always easier to
fire the head coach rather than fire the talent (or the talent acquirer). But I
don’t think framing Garrett in that light is fair, given the structure under
which he has worked. Many will claim injuries, poor drafting, lack of autonomy
over the coaching hiring and more as excuses for Garrett’s very average record.
But removing all the circumstances around Garrett, let’s actually look at who
he is as a coach. I believe it is safe to say that Jason Garrett is a
pass-first (65/35 pass/run ratio) offensive head coach who is very conservative
when it comes to taking chances. There have been issues of clock management as
well as lack of innovation. However, there is no doubt that he commands the locker
room and that his players continue to play hard for him. He has improved in his time in that role and
seems to have the right stuff to make it as a Head Coach in this league.
Remember, Bill Belichick got run out of town in his first HC job as well. And
the offense, when he is in control of it, has been a plus for this team.
Therefore, I believe the Cowboys must find a way to succeed with Jason Garrett
at the helm and I believe they can.
Offensive
Coordinator Bill Callahan: The fit of Callahan, a coach who came up in the
West Coast system, calling plays for a Norv Turner-based attack really never
had a chance. The quickness at which this team would abandon the run in the
face of crisis was startling and the inability to convert 3rd downs
was painfully evident at times. The Cowboys need to find a coach that is schooled
in the Garrett offense, like Norv Turner himself if available or one of his protégés,
to take the direct play-calling out of Garrett’s hands, though he needs to
maintain a presence in that process.
Defensive
Coordinator Monte Kiffin: The 73 year old Kiffin was brought in to
implement the Tampa-2 scheme and then transition the job to Rod Marinelli after
2 years. The issue with that is the Cowboys never really ran a Tampa-2 this
year. Due to the talent base, the Cowboys were forced to play man coverage and
eventually even begin blitzing in order to get pressure on the QB. And while I
think the traditional Tampa-2 defense is becoming obsolete with the advent of
the Chip Kelly-type read option attack, I would understand if Dallas did not
wish to abandon ship just yet. The second element here is the relationships
involved. Marinelli is fiercely loyal and a slighting of Monte could disrupt
the line of succession here. In addition, if Lovie Smith gets another HC job
this offseason, he may pluck Marinelli away. Regardless I believe Kiffin
probably needs to go. Whether or not his scheme does too will be discussed
later.
Strength and
Conditioning: I am not pinning this one on any particular coach or trainer,
but the rash of preventable injuries, namely hamstrings, on this team is not
good. I think a complete overhaul of the program, from offseason to pre-game
stretches, needs to occur. Bring in outside consultants, experts in various
fields, etc. For an owner who will spare no expense to win, this is an area
where those dollars can really be used and are being under-utilized.
Sabermetrics and
Statistics: This is the other area on the team that seems under-funded
and under-utilized. Increasingly, football is going the way of baseball and
basketball with a crazy amount of statistical breakdown. The Cowboys, I
believe, are a bit behind the curve in this regard. Take a page from the other
teams in town (the Mavs and Rangers) and get a team of nerds together. It never
hurts to have an independent auditing team to get that smallest of edges on
your opponent.
[Commentary: Jerry is very likely going to retain Jason
Garrett so the point is moot, but I would not. It is not that I don’t think he
is or could be a great NFL coach. But given who he is by virtue of his actions,
he does not fit my vision for the team (see Phase 1). If it were up to me, I
would blow out the entire staff and hire Cincinnati DC Mike Zimmer as Head
Coach. Given the success of that Bengals D this season with less than stellar
talent in some areas, I think he is exactly what Dallas needs. But that’s not
happening so it doesn’t matter]
Phase III: The Offense
As we finally filter down through the front office to the players
on the field, let’s begin with the offense. There are quite a few positives
that have come out of the 2013 season. So let’s go position by postion in our
evaluation:
Quarterback:
The Romo back injury is very troubling especially given his age, the new
contract and the cover-up surrounding his back injury last offseason. However,
when healthy Romo is a plus QB and you must stick with him for as long as he’s
able. The Cowboys just hope that last the length of that contract. As far as
Orton goes, the Romo injury would really tempt me to keep him one more season,
even at his around $4 mil cap number. However, the Cowboys may not be able to
afford it. Taking a QB in rounds 6 or 7 would be advisable.
Running Back:
DeMarco Murray has proven two things thus far: 1. He can be a star back in this
league 2. He will always be a durability concern. However, I think with an
improved offseason program (see above) and some depth, this can work. With Lance
Dunbar as a change of pace back and Randle the backup, the RB position is solid
going forward.
Wide Receiver:
The time has come for Miles Austin to go. His cap number is such that he is a
luxury Dallas can no longer afford. With the emergence of Terrence Williams and
Cole Beasley, the Cowboys can replace Miles with younger and cheaper options.
Dwayne Harris is your #4 and you can find a guy or two for depth late in the
draft or with undrafted FAs. But what about Dez? Bryant’s game needs to be
pushed to the next level, eliminating the last of the limitations that allow
him to be taken away by defenses. This will take 2 things: 1. A commitment by
Dez to work hard on the mental side of the game, learning to read coverages,
run option routes and be in sync with Romo. 2. An innovative offense that moves
Dez around and finds ways to get favorable match-ups.
Tight Ends:
The TE position is another spot where I think the Cowboys are set. Witten,
though beginning to lose a step, is a HOFer and a leader. Escobar, with a year
of strength training under his belt, should step forward next year and not be a
liability on the blocking side. Hanna should be flanked out more and take
advantage of his pass catching ability against smaller DBs. All I might
consider with this group is a true blocking TE. A glorified OT that can road
grade on the edge.
Offensive Line:
The line really progressed as the season went along and I think only really
needs a few tweaks. First, I would swap Leary and Bernadeau. I would move Leary
to the right side to take advantage of his run blocking ability and slide
Bernadeau to the left side, where his long arms could be an asset in
pass-protection. I would keep Free at RT, though continue the competition
between he and Clary as starter. Finally, I would look for more depth and a g/c
combo player late in the draft to develop and eventually replace Bernadeau in
the future.
[Commentary: Overall, I was very impressed with the Cowboys
offense at times this season. The improvements in the Red Zone and with
mistakes like turnovers and penalties were outstanding. The 3rd down
efficiency concerned me, but I think that is a function of playcalling and
innovation. With just a few minor changes (and the health of Romo), this side
of the ball could be great]
Phase IV: The Defense
For as improved as the offense was, the defense regressed
that much and more. Injuries will occur in every NFL season, but the glaring
lack of depth due to failures in past drafts become sickeningly apparent this
year. Combine that with a scheme change and age in some veterans and you have
the steaming pile of mess that led Dallas to finish dead last in total defense.
But all is not lost! There is talent here and, combined with a good draft (see
below), this team can turn it around in 2014. The idea here is to have a
multiple set alignment that is versatile, unpredictable and takes full
advantage of the talent on the roster 9details below). Again we go position by
position:
Defensive End:
At the start of the year, the switch to the 4-3 was based on the abilities of
DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer to bring bookend pressure on the QB. Well,
that didn’t ever happen. Spencer’s knee went wrong and Ware’s age begin to show
with the rigors of facing LTs head up all year. Couple that with the Tyrone
Crawford injury in the preseason and the depth at DE was nil. George Selvie was
a nice find, but even if he can be retained he got a little overexposed. So
going into 2014, the Cowboys will need help here. My plan would be to use Ware
in a pass rushing specialist roll, try to resign Selvie and then use Tyrone
Crawford the way the NY Giants use Justin Tuck (at DE on running downs, slide
him to DT on passing downs). If Spencer will return on a one year “prove it”
contract, even better. Adding one more player here in the draft would be
excellent, using a mid round selection.
Defensive Tackle:
This is the position of most concern going into next season. Jason Hatcher, who
played great at the 3 technique this year, is likely due a big payday and
Dallas simply cannot (or maybe more appropriately should not) afford it. That
leaves you with just the gaggle of guys who filled the other spot, lead by Nick
Hayden. I would use 2 premium draft picks at DT in this year’s draft, likely
including my first round choice. Getting a true starter and then a quality
depth player, in addition to playing Hayden on run downs and Crawford on
passing downs, would really improve this position and make it the “strength” it
was thought to be last year.
Linebacker:
Once thought to be a clear asset going into 2013, the LB core got ravaged by
injuries and the scheme. Sean Lee again missed significant time with injury
and, having just signed a new extension, cannot continue to be used in the same
way. Bruce Carter, also battling injuries, was terrible early on in the year
and even got benched at one point. Durant was ok and will likely be a cap
casualty this offseason. My plan for the linebackers is as follows: Move Sean
Lee to the Will LB and put Bruce Carter in the Middle. This will help limit Lee’s
exposure to bigger OL men and let him fly around and make plays. Meanwhile,
Carter will be in a more structured environment where he can read, react and
use his speed. At the Sam LB, I would continue to keep Kyle Wilbur there, but
use him more like the way the Bengals use Manny Lawson. He would be a blitzing
force, cover and chuck TEs and even could slide to DE in the nickel or dime
package without a personnel change. As far as reserves, keeping Ernie Sims as your
backup Will would be great. Holloman played well as an emergency Mike LB,
though I would have him also learn the Sam position as well. Fill out the
roster with some young players with promise that contribute on special teams
and it’s done.
Cornerback:
It was not a good year for the Dallas CBs. Despite the promise of the Tamps-2,
the corners were often asked to play man coverage without much assistance from
the pass rush. The results speak for themselves. Learning the techniques and
angles it takes to play a Tampa-2 properly usually takes years and does not fit
the strengths of these players. Brandon Carr is a good #1 CB, but he is not a
shutdown corner to be left on an island. Mo Claiborne is a solid #2 CB who can
be left on the island, but not against #1 receivers. Orlando Scandrick really
stepped forward this year and his ability to blitz out of the slot and zone
awareness is a plus. BW Webb needs time to get stronger and develop and
Sterling Moore is a reliable 4/5 CB. So here is the plan: Carr and Claiborne
start, Scandrick is the nickel. And here’s the innovation: Scandrick plays not
only in the slot as a nickel back, but also slides back to FS at times. Thus
the Cowboys defense can be versatile and adapt to the hurry-up attacks of teams
like Philadelphia (see illustration below). With minimal personnel changes,
this defense can be aggressive and dictate more to the offense.
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BASE 4-3
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Wilcox
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Church
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Lee
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Carter
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Wilbur
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Claiborne
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Carr
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Ware/Selvie
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Rookie DT
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Hayden
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Crawford
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Nickel
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Wilcox
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Church
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Scandrick
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Lee
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Carter
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Claiborne
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Carr
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Ware
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Rookie DT
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Crawford
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Selvie
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Big Nickel
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Scandrick
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Wilcox
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Church
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Lee
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Carter
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Claiborne
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Carr
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Ware
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Rookie DT
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Crawford
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Wilbur
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Safeties:
The safety tandem of Church and Wilcox was a mixed bag this season, but mostly
because both are ill-suited for the Tampa-2 scheme. Church was a college
linebacker and is best served playing around the line of scrimmage in run
support. Wilcox is still very raw but has nice athletic gifts. He seems better
suited to also be a SS with the action remaining in front of him. Therefore,
Dallas has 2 strong safeties and no one to play centerfield. This is an area
that could be addressed in the illustration above, but also should be addressed
in the draft. A true ballhawking free safety, or perhaps even just a big (6’3”+)
college corner should fit the bill somewhere in the middle 3 rounds. Moving
Church into a Nickel LB role also seems like a natural fit.
Phase V: The Draft
No matter who is coaching or what scheme you are running,
every NFL team’s lifeblood is young and inexpensive talent and that comes from
drafting. For years fans have seen the failures of the Cowboys to consistently “win”
on draft weekend. The results of these failures mean more free agents, which
means more money on the cap, which eventually leads to collapse. This cannot
continue. The philosophy on drafting should be a simple one:
1. Preparation: Build your board based on your scout’s
information. Be thorough and don’t get cute
2. Gameplan: strategize the most likely scenarios for
the day and what your plans B, C, D and E might be. Never get caught with your
pants down
3. Expectations: Plan on drafting 1 full-time starter
(Round 1), 2-4 solid contributors (Round 2-4), and 3-5 developmental players (Rounds
4-7). You don’t need a homerun with every pick
4. Adapt: Don’t get caught up in the moment, but also
don’t hesitate to jump on opportunity. The Draft is constantly evolving with
each pick and you must be ready
With this in mind, my needs for Dallas in April are in
order:
1.
DT
2.
DE
3.
LB
4.
FS
5.
Interior OL
6.
WR
7.
QB
You can find more of my NFL Draft breakdown in The Draft
Narrative Scouting Guide due out April 2014 or at www.thesportsnarrative.com
Conclusion
It has been
quite a stroll through the desert for fans of the Dallas Cowboys these past 18
years. 18 years of the absolute definition of mediocrity. And I know no one is
more pained about this than Jerry Jones himself. He wants so desperately to win
and be vindicated. But as Martin Luther King Jr. once said “Man must evolve for all human conflict a method which rejects revenge,
aggression and retaliation. The foundation of such a method is love.”
More than anything else, Jerry Jones must find his love and compassion for this
team again, for the fans again and for the reasons he bought this team in the
first place: to win. Please, Mr. Jones, humble yourself to winning and bring
back the glory of the Dallas Cowboys by expanding your vision and sharing your
power and this team with others. We are all in this thing together and only
together may we succeed!
