Sports Breaks Bad

With the final 8 episodes of Breaking Bad starting up this weekend, what a perfect time for everything in sports to break bad! This week we talk suspensions in baseball and A-Rod's defiance, a potential suspension for Johnny Football and its effect on the Top 25, the Cowboys and Dolphins engaging in a bad exhibition of football last Sunday and more to come in the NFL, a look at the rough-and-tumble AFC North in our season previews, watch Tiger try to break through again and finally we'll be joined by special guest Will Prewitt, Commisioner of the Great American Conference, in our new interview series "Jobs in Sports and How They Got There"

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Rangers Pepper 8/6: Life after Cruz

by Dustin Copening

“#RangersThoughts” on Twitter can be seen by following me @dfwfanconnect, but those thoughts evolve every few days from 140 characters into what I have dubbed as  “Rangers Pepper”.

How do you follow up a 6-1 stretch that has launched your team back into the pennant race? If you’re the Rangers, you do so by attempting to replace your team leader in homers and RBI who just got popped with a 50 game suspension you feared was coming for several weeks.

Last night showed it could be worse. Heck, it has been worse, and it isn’t unprecedented for a team to overcome a body blow like this. Before I get to that, let’s take a stroll down memory lane to a happier time in the career of the Boomstick (2:05 mark if you’re the impatient type):

 

The Sting Of The Inevitable - Ryan Braun rolled over. Amazingly. After more than a year of finger wagging and proclaiming he had nothing to hide, he just went away rather quietly for 65 games. The shockwaves from that unforeseen decision were the first warning signs that Texas might be losing their best power hitter for most, if not all of the remaining games of the regular season.

By the beginning of last week it was clear that Bud Selig would be making good on his promise to hand down the final rounds of suspensions for those involved in the Biogenesis investigation, and with authority. There would be no negotiated suspensions for the rest of the players involved.

Take your medicine and like it. Want to fight back? Be prepared for career Armageddon if you lose.

 

So, at around 10:00 yesterday morning, the news that every Rangers fan had been dreading since Spring Training hit. Nelson Cruz will watch the rest of the regular season unfold from someplace other than right field. A spectator to the conclusion of a year pockmarked by one dose of bad news after another.

Bob Nightengale has a source that told him that Jon Daniels and his staff were, “blindsided” by hearing that Cruz would not appeal the decision. Pardon the skepticism, but when was the last time anyone accurately reported JD being left flabbergasted by anything involving the organization he’s helped build into a routine playoff contender?

Ben Rogers was allowed to go on the record for Ian Kinsler to combat reports that the clubhouse was overcome with anger. Abandoned by a brother when he was most needed. Kinsler professed love and support for Nellie, not rage and disappointment.

Sorry Mr. Source. Wrong again.

We do not know yet if Nelson Cruz has played his last game in a Rangers uniform. The probability is good that he has, but there is a chance that ownership and management may find a comfortable dollar figure that they and Cruz can agree on, or he might get a shot at another October run with the club if they make the playoffs.

That’s looking like a big IF, but allow me to share with you a few reasons why I believe the Cruz banishment is not the final nail in this season’s coffin.

Cream Puffs In The Road Ahead - Texas has the easier schedule in August than Oakland, a team that they have managed to make up 4 games against in a little more than a week. That’s 4 more games than the Rangers gained on the Athletics in all of July.

August has not only started much better, but it sets up to provide a smooth path for Texas as they adjust to life without Nellie. In the next 23 games, the Rangers will play opponents with a combined winning percentage of .415. None of those teams will enter their series against the Rangers above .500. Even more promising, Texas already has a 27-14 record against these foes.

For the A’s, they will play 25 games before meeting up with the Rangers once again. The combined winning percentage of the teams that they face in that span is .511, and their record versus those opponents is 21-23. That includes 3 contests against the Astros; however, the Rangers get Houston 7 times in the next 27 days.

September’s schedule swings back in Oakland’s favor (a .452 opponents winning percentage compared to Texas’ .514), but Oakland will finish the season with 6 road games against the Angels and Mariners. They are 14-12 against them.

Texas gets 7 home games against the Astros and Angels. They are 15-4 against them

Precedent Set - You need only look to a year ago to answer the question of if a team can survive losing one of their best offensive threats for the stretch drive of a season and make the playoffs.

The San Francisco Giants were suddenly faced with the task of making due without Melky Cabrera on August 15th. As play began play that day, San Francisco was tied for the NL West lead with the Los Angeles Dodgers.  45 games later they had upped their runs per game average from 4.2 to 4.9, and won the West by 8 games. Finishing the year 30-15.

They did all of this without finding anything close to a suitable replacement for Cabrera’s bat in left field.

In 105 games as the Giants’ left fielder, Melky posted a slash line of .350/.396/.513. He scored 76 runs and drove in 56 RBI. In the other 57 games, his replacements hit .215/.270/.276 with 21 R and 16 RBI. Twelve of those games came prior to his suspension, but the picture is still clear.

San Francisco won the West because the players not playing in left stepped up.

And before anyone points to an obvious gap in pitching talent between the 2012 Giants and 2013 Rangers; Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Matt Garza, Martin Perez, and Alexi Ogando all have comparable or better numbers than their Giants counterparts did last year. Albeit with nearly two months left to go in this season.

 

Offensive Productivity, COME ON DOWN! - Who will step up to fill the void left in the Texas lineup by Nelson Cruz?

Ron Washington has found a combination he’s comfortable with at the top of the order (1: Martin, 2: Andrus, and 3: Kinsler). Kinsler at 3rd (.231/.295/.385) hasn’t clicked quite like Cruz did hitting there (.276/.324/.455), but the offense had rebounded lately with Cruz shifting to the 6th spot in the order.

The Rangers tried David Murphy there last evening, and even though he is in the middle of a massively disappointing season, Murphy is hitting .283 with 2 HR since the All Star Break. Though, he did have two misplayed balls in right field last night that could have been ruled errors.

Mitch Moreland hit behind Murph, whose .294 average and .980 OPS in the last 7 days could signify he’s about to match the .329 average and .937 OPS performance he put up in August of 2012.

Craig Gentry, Engel Beltre, and newcomer Joey Butler will see the remaining playing time in the outfield. The likelihood of one, or all three of them equaling the lost production of Cruz is about as good as ESPN hiring me to replace Randy Galloway, but that’s not what Texas needs to advance to October.

Should Murphy, Moreland, or both discover the swing that got them to the big leagues, then all Ron Washington will ask of Gentry, Beltre and Butler is that they catch the ball and avoid giving up runs on the occasions when they reach base.

Step one in this baseball chemistry experiment proved to be a success. Only 49 more to go.

 

 

 

Thoughts on the Cuban Blog

by Jeff Bowers

In Einstein’s theory of relativity, the observance of time and events is directly affected by the force of gravity acting on the object. The stronger the pull, the slower the passage of time is perceived by the individual. Somehow it seems as though people with strong and “magnetic” personalities have that same effect. Case in point: the latest offering from the Mark Cuban blog.

 

 

To begin, let me state my positioning. I have been enormously critical of the direction of the club for the last 2 seasons since the break-up of the title team. The pursuit of “the big fish” in free agency without any assets except an aging superstar and “dry powder” seemed foolhardy at best. I felt Cuban and company wasted the final few years of Dirk’s prime and are only now beginning to see that. I had grown so frustrated, in fact, that abandoning the team I loved since its inception became a real possibility like an abused lover who just had to run for it. It pained me so much to see my tiny little hometown team, having just taken me to heights I had never dreamed, fall into mediocrity so fast due to pride and stubbornness. That having been said, the recent capitulation of Mark Cuban of mistakes of the past and the hiring of new GM Gersson Rosas from Houston to ostensibly help with the woeful draft record seemed encouraging and I tore up the divorce paperwork. And that is why the article on Cuban’s blog this weekend is conflicting.

 

 

As a self-made billionaire, I have so much respect for Mark Cuban’s business acumen, his courage and his audacity. He could sell a bottle of water to a drowning man, cut a deal so shrewd the Devil himself would lose out and then go on TV and make it all sound totally awesome. That is an amazing skill set I only wished I had. However, as Voltaire and Spiderman tell us, “with great power comes great responsibility” and I worry that Cuban loses sight of that at times. While thinking outside the box is fantastic, in sports there is also a tradition and procedure that must at least be given its proper respects, AKA the Sports Gods. Now this does not mean that we must all bow down and give the Lakers every good big man ever. But it does mean that the Lakers hold more gravitas than the Mavericks, and probably always will. So you cannot compete with them directly in the free agent market, in general. You must find a different way. Like how the A’s use moneyball to compete with the Yankees. For a while, the Mavericks had that. Between their lead in the foreign markets thanks to Donnie Nelson and Cuban’s endless piles of cash in trade deals, the Mavs put up 10+ years of the best basketball this town has ever seen. However, the rest of the league soon caught up on the Euros (and even surpassed in the case of the Spurs) and Cuban finally pulled back on the purse strings (and rightly so). Even the “perks” of the facilities became a non-factor.

So the question becomes: What makes your team unique in its ability to compete in the NBA today?

Answer: Nothing

In Cuban’s blog, he tells us where his mindset was as the NBA sludged through the dark days of the lockout and the new CBA. He tells how he thought the 2011 season would be lost and how a strike-shortened season was not conducive to his older roster. He recounts his “new path forward” in a NBA with a real cap (in this blog and in past ones) and how he would get out in front of it. At this point, I am reminded of those original developers who began building houses in a tiny outlying suburb of Frisco, TX in the 80’s. They were way ahead of the curve. However, they also all went bankrupt before the rest of the metroplex caught up to them. But I digress.

 

 

At this point the blog shifts a little and talks about culture. On this point I completely agree with Mark. An attitude and tradition of winning is paramount in a franchise and should not be sacrificed. I absolutely agree that he cannot and will not trade Dirk, nor should the Mavs “tank” games or seasons to improve their draft stock. Sorry teams do that and usually they stay sorry. The Clippers have all kinds of superstars on their roster. Still not winning titles.

 

However when Cuban speaks of culture, he then tries to tell us that Dwight Howard was a good idea. WHAT?! I understand that having the best big man in the game makes your team better. But nothing that dude has done in his NBA career tells me he has anything close to the culture of a winner. Now, if his point is that Dirk could show him how to be a winner, I reluctantly buy that. Though Kobe’s a hell of a competitor and Dwight wanted no part of that (though I don’t blame him). And this is where the blog begins to lose me and brings me back to my original point.

 

 

The actions this team has taken over the past few seasons and the reasoning Mark Cuban gives us in this blog are inconsistent. He tells us the team is better for having gotten winning pieces rather than a superstar, yet spent 2 entire years in pursuit of just that. And I fully expect we’ll hear that same song and dance next off-season about LeBron and Carmelo. Then they won’t come here and Cuban will tweet that “we didn’t really want them anyway.” Maddening. In addition, usable pieces are something fans like myself have been screaming for, only to be told that “dry powder” and salary cap space was the answer. So now this season we begin to acquire these pieces as opposed to 1 year mercenaries. Once Dirk is 35. Hmm. To this wonderful stew add a generous helping of poor and seemingly lethargic drafting over the past 10 years by this organization, though as I said, a problem that they appear to be addressing. And what are we left with? A team whose owner decried mediocrity now telling us we hope to be a 5^th or 6^th seed in the West.

 

 

From the Mavs bloggers and possibly Cuban himself, I will likely get excoriated for my lack of knowledge or expertise. And they may be right. All I know is the facts of the last few seasons. And I hope that I stand far enough outside the bubble of Cuban’s gravity to be objective and perceive things differently. My hope is that Cuban can come out here and visit me sometime on “The Satellite of Love” (MST3K reference) and get a snoot full of my perception as well.

 

Decoding Scheppers' Season

by Dustin Copening

 

 

It was a sunny afternoon in Surprise, and my wife and I were taking in the second of four games we would see during our third pilgrimage to Texas Rangers Spring Training. It was the bottom of the eighth, and I had convinced my bride to postpone a trip to the fan shop in center field because I wanted to see Mike Olt’s one AB of the contest.

As Olt launched a Travis Webb pitch into the left field stands, to give Texas a 12-0 lead, I turned and smiled. It was time to go shopping.

 

 

On our way out of the fan shop, I noticed the final score of 12-3. Upon returning to our hotel room and browsing over the box score, I was not the least bit surprised to see that Tanner Scheppers was the culprit who allowed the Brewers’ three runs.

Four hits, three earned, and one strikeout.

 

 

Somewhere between that outing and August 4th, Tanner Scheppers became one of the most trusted arms in the Rangers’ bullpen. Ron Washington turned to him 24 times in April and May, resulting in 9 holds, 3 wins, a 0.68 ERA, and 0.835 WHIP.

The next 25 appearances in Scheppers’ season have not been as impressive.

His 3.13 ERA in June and July raised his season total to 1.82. His 1.522 WHIP in that two month stretch edged closer to the 2012 total of 1.732 that triggered a pessimistic scowl to creep across my face each time he stepped to the mound during that depressing season.

So what gives?

 

 

Has Wash turned to Schepp one too many times? Forced to ride his most important righty behind Joe Nathan to the point of no return? Maybe those 23 inning in 61 days signify a regression for Scheppers, from a nails setup man to a reliever who can only be trusted in mild pressure situation.

Or perhaps there’s an answer to be found in the middle.

 

 

 

BABIP is an advanced stat that sabermetricians point to as an indicator of luck. According to Fan Graphs, the average BABIP for any pitcher falls from .290 to .300. The site also hypothesizes that pitchers with a higher strikeout rate will induce a lower BABIP due to a lower/weaker rate of contact.

In May, Scheppers recorded an absurd .091 BABIP in 12.2 IP, despite striking out just 5.7 batters per 9 innings. For reference, Neal Cotts posted a .270 BABIP in June while striking out 10.6 batters per 9, over 15.1 innings pitched.

 

 

In other words, according to the low number of strikeouts he produced, Scheppers was extremely lucky in May.

 

 

It would be expected that his luck would run out as he continued to send a handful of batters to the dugout on strike three. But surprisingly, as Scheppers’ increased his strikeout percentage, hitters began punishing him more and more.

In July, Scheppers’ best month for K’s per 9 IP (7.3), hitters tattooed him for a .414 BABIP and a 1.846 WHIP. Was this the result of a pitcher dealing with a dead arm, or an outcome brought about by horrendous luck?

My best educated guess is as follows.

 

 

Factor out Schepp’s remarkable month of May (0.71 ERA, 0.553 WHIP and .091 BABIP), and ghastly month of July (3.12 ERA, 1.846 WHIP, and .414 BABIP), and we’re left with a reasonable projection of a 1.93 ERA, 1.214 WHIP, and .250 BABIP for the playoff stretch drive.

There are 51 games remaining in the season for Scheppers to meet or exceed those numbers.

We can only hope that the averages are on his side.

 

 

 

2013 NFL Previews: NFC South

by Darren Boyd

NFC South 

The NFC South features one of the best teams in the NFC in the Atlanta Falcons, and 3 teams that are hard to get a handle on, The Saints, Bucs and the Panthers.

The Atlanta Falcons were 13-3 and were a few yards away from going to the Super Bowl last year. By adding veterans RB Stephen Jackson and DE Osi Umeniyora, the Dirty Birds are looking to make it all the way to the Big Apple this year for SB 47

The New Orleans Saints went 7-9  last year, mostly due to missing their coach and playcaller Sean Payton last year due to BountyGate. A new DC in Rob Ryan has the Saints hopes high of returning to their winning ways

The Carolina Panthers managed to win 7 meaningless games at the end of the year somehow. Cam Newton looked better but is not surrounded by much talent on either side of the ball.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 7-9 in the first year of HC Greg Schiano. After a big spending spree in free agency last year, the Bucs continued to "make it rain" adding CB Darrelle Revis & S Dashon Goldson to the secondary. But the hopes for the Pewter Pirates still lies in inconsistent QB Josh Freeman

 

Atlanta Falcons

 

The Falcons were led by Matt Ryan, who just got a 5 yr - 100+ million buck extension, to a 13-3 season last year. Thanks Miami for passing on him for Jake Long btw. Ryan threw for over 4700 yards and 32 TDs. The Falcons boast the best wide out dynamic duo in the NFL with Julio Jones and Roddy White. They also convinced Future Hall Of Famer Tony Gonzales to give it one more try. Tony might be 37 years old but plays like he is 27. The Falcons replaced Michael Turner with Steven Jackson. Jackson still has some fuel left in the tank as he had over 1000 yards last season with the Rams. Their O-line is a question mark on the right side. They let Tyson Clabo go as the Right Tackle and will be replaced by former 3rd Round Pick Lamar Holmes. Peter Konz takes over the center position.

    The Falcons defense is where the skeptics point to as a weakness. They let their sack leader John Abraham go after a double digit sack year and replaced him with the fading Osi Umenyiora. They were 28th in the NFL in sacks last year with only 29 total. What is more shocking is that they let go of all of their top cornerbacks after collecting 20 INTs last year. This was 5th best in the NFL. They did address the secondary in the draft but one has to expect some growing pains. In the draft they moved up and grabbed my favorite CB in the draft Desmond Trufant out of Washington. They also doubled down on that position by taking Robert Alford in the 3rd round.

    The Falcons loaded up on defense this draft taking 6 out of 8 draft picks who were on that side of the ball . Vegas likes them to repeat as NFC South champs with a 10 total win over/under and 16-1 odds to get to the Super Bowl.  If one can get Steven Jackson pretty early in Fantasy football...do it. He can catch passes out of the backfield unlike Turner. Huge for PPR leagues.

 

New Orleans Saints

 

The Saints had a historic year, but not in the way they would like. In terms of their "BountyGate" punishment and that they allowed a NFL record 7042 yards against that defense!!!! That's 440 yards a game, which of course was last in the NFL. Of course they get the triumphant return of Coach Sean Payton this season. Drew Brees had an amazing year throwing for 5177 yards and 43 TDs. The Saints will be bolstered by a healthy Jimmy Graham who dealt with a wrist injury for most of last year. The big question mark is their left tackle spot. They drafted Terron Armstead early and also Charles Brown competeing for that job, but neother should inspire much confidence. The Saints running game is non existent. They averaged less then 100 yards a game. They do use Darren Sproles well out of the back field. He caught 75 passes last year. 

    On Defense, where to start. They hired Rob Ryan, who said something like it would take him 5 mins to find a job after getting canned by the Cowboys. Took a little longer then that buddy as the Rams shot you down first.  The Saints are switching to a 3-4 scheme now, but lack true outside linebackers on the roster. Hmm.  The Saints were 32nd against the run & 31st against the pass in the NFL. They did not have a single player with double digit sacks. They did add a mountain of a man, John Jenkins 6'5 360 out of Georgia  at the nose and spent their 15th overall pick on UT Safety Kenny Vaccaro.

    I thought their draft was average. They only had 5 draft picks so 3 must become starters. Vegas likes the Saints to have a turn around with 9 wins for over/under in wins and a shocking 16-1 odds to get to the Super Bowl. I don't see that with their defense. They have so many options in fantasy but stay away from first round bust Mark Ingram.

 

Carolina Panthers 

 

Does anyone remember when the Panthers last made the Playoffs. Me neither so I had to look it up. 2008 was the answer, also the last time this franchise had a winning record.  Well at least Cam Newton continues to improve. Although its never a good sign when your QB is your leading rusher too. Their old GM sunk tens of millions of dollars into RBs DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart. They still have 34 year old Steve Smith and my fantasy pick to click WR Brandon LaFell.   Greg Olsen will be a high fantasy tight end taken after 69 catches 843 yards and 5 TDs.  The Panthers O-Line could be the worst in the NFL. 

    The Panthers Defense can get after the QB. 39 sacks last year which was 9th in the NFL. Although Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy had 23.5 of them. I love the DT Star Loutulelei pick in the draft. I feel he has superstar potential in the league. The Panthers secondary was weak. They only had 11 INTs last season and they released CB Chris Gamble, who later retired. The Panthers did little to address their secondary concerns this off season.  Their line backing corps is filled with oft injured players, Thomas Davis and Jon Beason but does have a future superstar in Luke Kuechly.

    I liked their 1st 2 picks in the draft, DTs Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short but only having 5 total picks for a rebuilding team is unacceptable. Vegas sets the over under wins total at 7 and 60-1 odds at the Super Bowl.

 

 

Tampa Bay Bucs 

 

Coach Greg Schiano came in took charge and ruffled some feathers around the league. But he also took a 4-12 team to 7-9. The big question with the Bucs is what to do with QB Josh Freeman. He is on the last year of his deal.  He threw for 4000 plus yards and 27 TDs but the Bucs fan base also says he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory a few too many times. RB Doug Martin came in and ran for 1454 yards and 11 TDs plus caught 49 passes. Great for you PPR fantasy league players.  Vincent Jackson was a huge free agent pick up with 72 catches 1384 yards and 8 TDs. WR Mike Williams has seem to overcome his knuckle head days at Syracuse to catch 63 passes 996 yards and 9 TDs. The Bucs just gave him a 6 yr 40 Million dollar deal. The Bucs do have the best O-Line in the NFL. Carl Knicks is one of if not the best left guard in the NFL anchors the line.

    The Bucs defense was woeful at getting after the QB.  Their leading sack artist Michael Bennett left to the Seahawks after only 9 sacks last year. The team had 27 total which was tied for 29th in the league. They do possess the number 1 ranked rush defense at only 82 yards per game, but that might because their secondary was so porous last year. They are lead by Defensive Tackle Gerald McCoy, he only had 5 sacks but is a run stuffer. They sent their 1st rounder to the Jets to acquire the best corner in the game when healthy  in Darrelle Revis. They also spent their 2nd round pick on CB Johnthan Banks. The spent huge money on free agent S Dashon Goldson to team up with future superstar Mark Barron in the safety spots. The Bucs had 18 INTs last year which was 8th best but have a chance to improve that number with their upgrades.

    Outside of Banks, I hated their draft. If Mike Glennon pushes for playing time this team is in trouble. The rest of their draft featured part time players at best.  Vegas has them at 7.5 wins for the over under and 40-1 long shots to reach the Super Bowl.  Take Doug Martin early in FFL.

HOF(F) Show

Getting you ready for the first preseason game with 60 minutes on red-hot football talk! Jeff and Darren of the Sports Narrative Show crew will break down what to watch for in the Cowboys v. Dolphins match-up as well as discuss the 2013 class being inducted into the Hall in Canton this weekend. If you've been jonesin' for some football, we've got your fix!

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Sports in Living Colour

- Journey with The Sports Narrative radio show back to 1988 and the Vivid Album by Living Colour as we celebrate the 25th anniversary of it's greatness with the "1988 Game Show!"

- The Texas Rangers don't add a bat at the trade deadline. Is there still moves to be made? When is Nellie getting axed for 50, or is he? Who takes the blame if this thing fails to play in October? Dustin Copening leads the debate.

- What other moves happen at the deadline and what impact will they have? Is MLB handling this whole Biogenesis thing fairly? A-Rod is an idiot, but will we ever see him on a baseball diamond again? Jeff Feltman navigates us through these murky waters.

- Mick's Pub this week serves up an extra slice of Nerdy, with talk of kick-ass cars to Comic-Con. Come have a beer and relive your awkward phase.

- We are less than a month from college football and, as the great Bob Dylan said, "The times, they are a changin" Darren and Jeff talk about rules and landscape changes.

Courtesy of GameDay Cloth

- The NFC South should be highly competitive this season, with Atlanta looking to the Super Bowl and the other bunkmates looking to break through. Darren Boyd breaks it down throughout the show.

What more could you ask for? Well, probably a lot. But listen anyway and perhaps "all your wildest dreams will come true."

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