A look ahead to the Dallas Cowboys Off-season on Dec 1

Part One

As the NFL season enters the month of December, there is much to be settled. The Cowboys sit poised with an 8-4 record and their playoff destiny laid out before them: 3 wins and you are in (probably), 2 and it’s close, 1 and it’s highly unlikely. But no matter how the next 4 games go, the off-season looms ahead ominously and demands a game plan all its own. So let’s take a preliminary look at the road to 2015 and what questions must be addressed.

Phase #1: The Salary Cap

As it stands today, the Cowboys are entering into 2015 with around $138 million committed in contract with a projected salary cap of around $140 million. Obviously this does not leave a lot of room for additions, not to mention that this does not include Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray or Ron Leary to name a few. Therefore, some “massaging: of contracts is needed. Here is the complete list of current contracts and dead money for 2015 courtesy of www.overthecap.com:

Contracted Players

Name	Base Salary (Guaranteed)	Bonuses				Cap Number		Dead Money & Cap Savings   Cut (pre-June 1) Cut (post-June 1) Trade
		Prorated	Roster	Workout	Other
Tony Romo	$17,000,000 $7,500,000	$10,773,000	$0	$0	$0	$27,773,000		$37,408,000	($9,635,000)
Tyron Smith	$11,039,000 $11,039,000	$2,000,000	$0	$0	$0	$13,039,000		$19,039,000	($6,000,000)
Brandon Carr	$8,000,000	$4,717,000	$0	$0	$0	$12,717,000		$12,151,000	$566,000
Doug Free	$8,000,000	$3,020,000	$0	$0	$0	$11,020,000		$3,980,000	$7,040,000
Henry Melton	$9,000,000	$250,250	$0	$0	$0	$9,250,250		$750,750	$8,499,500
Jason Witten	$5,100,000	$3,412,000	$0	$0	$0	$8,512,000		$5,236,000	$3,276,000
Sean Lee	$2,500,000	$2,950,000	$0	$0	$0	$5,450,000		$9,800,000	($4,350,000)
Morris Claiborne	$2,607,887 $2,607,887	$2,567,182	$0	$0	$0	$5,175,069		$5,175,069	$0
Orlando Scandrick	$1,500,000	$2,851,250	$0	$0	$0	$4,351,250		$6,602,500	($2,251,250)
Mackenzy Bernadeau	$1,500,000	$1,324,168	$0	$0	$0	$2,824,168		$1,324,168	$1,500,000
Dan Bailey	$1,700,000	$800,000	$0	$0	$0	$2,500,000		$3,200,000	($700,000)
Barry Church	$1,750,000	$500,000	$0	$0	$0	$2,250,000		$1,000,000	$1,250,000
Zack Martin	$827,627 $827,627	$0	$0	$0	$0	$2,038,136		$3,705,762	($1,667,626)
Travis Frederick	$1,029,548 $1,029,548	$844,096	$0	$0	$0	$1,873,644		$2,717,740	($844,096)
Jeremy Mincey	$1,500,000 $200,000	$250,000	$0	$0	$0	$1,750,000		$450,000	$1,300,000
Demarcus Lawrence	$670,302 $670,302	$581,209	$0	$0	$0	$1,251,511		$2,893,929	($1,642,418)
Dekoda Watson	$1,250,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$1,250,000		$0	$1,250,000
Gavin Escobar	$787,772	$360,545	$0	$0	$0	$1,148,317		$721,090	$427,227
LP Ladouceur	$1,000,000	$120,000	$0	$0	$0	$1,120,000		$360,000	$760,000
Terrell McClain	$1,000,000	$100,000	$0	$0	$0	$1,100,000		$200,000	$900,000
Amobi Okoye	$870,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$870,000		$0	$870,000
Tyrone Crawford	$675,000	$143,813	$0	$10,000	$0	$828,813		$143,813	$685,000
Terrance Williams	$615,000	$154,868	$0	$10,000	$0	$779,868		$309,736	$470,132
Kyle Wilber	$660,000	$109,805	$0	$0	$0	$769,805		$109,805	$660,000
JJ Wilcox	$595,000	$146,517	$0	$10,000	$0	$751,517		$293,034	$458,483
Josh Brent	$745,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$745,000		$0	$745,000
James Hanna	$660,000	$26,213	$0	$0	$0	$686,213		$26,213	$660,000
Jack Crawford	$660,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$660,000		$0	$660,000
Brandon Weeden	$660,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$660,000		$0	$660,000
Joseph Randle	$585,000	$47,220	$0	$0	$0	$632,220		$94,440	$537,780
Anthony Hitchens	$510,000	$108,716	$0	$0	$0	$618,716		$326,148	$292,568
DeVonte Holloman	$585,000	$26,055	$0	$0	$0	$611,055		$52,110	$558,945
Jakar Hamilton	$585,000	$9,334	$0	$0	$0	$594,334		$9,334	$585,000
Jeff Heath	$585,000	$668	$0	$0	$0	$585,668		$668	$585,000
Devin Street	$510,000	$50,493	$0	$0	$0	$560,493		$151,479	$409,014
Chris Whaley	$510,000	$1,666	$0	$0	$0	$511,666		$3,334	$508,332
Jordan Najvar	$510,000	$500	$0	$0	$0	$510,500		$1,000	$509,500
Keith Smith	$510,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$510,000		$0	$510,000
Dustin Vaughan	$510,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$510,000		$0	$510,000
Tyler Patmon	$510,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$510,000		$0	$510,000
Donald Hawkins	$510,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$510,000		$0	$510,000
Ben Gardner	$435,000	$14,793	$0	$0	$0	$449,793		$44,379	$405,414

Dead Money

Name	Cap Number
Miles Austin	$5,106,200
Kyle Orton	$2,255,000
B.W. Webb	$221,690
Matt Johnson	$75,146
Uche Nwaneri	$65,000
DeVonte Holloman	$52,110
Will Smith	$37,764
Ken Bishop	$34,422
Terrance Mitchell	$34,422
Ahmad Dixon	$34,422
Dashaun Phillips	$5,000
L’Damian Washington	$4,667
Jarrod Pughsley	$3,334
Josh Aladenoye	$3,334
Chris Boyd	$2,334
Andre Cureton	$2,000
Evan Wilson	$1,667
Marvin Robinson	$1,334
Cody Mandell	$1,334
Ben Malena	$1,334
Keith Smith	$1,334
J.C. Copeland	$1,334
Jocquel Skinner	$1,000
Brian Clarke	$1,000
Joe Windsor	$1,000
Casey Kreiter	$1,000
Ryan Smith	$1,000
Ronald Patrick	$1,000
Davon Coleman	$1,000
Dontavis Sapp	$667
TOTAL	$7,952,849

Options:

1.       Re-doing some key player’s contracts

This is the best option for creating money, guaranteeing more money to guys like Tyron Smith, Scandrick, Melton, Church and others to free up room. The questions becomes “is it enough?”

2.       Re-doing player’s with a less certain status

This option is a little scarier as it charges more money to future salary caps and may come due sooner than the team would like. This list includes players like Romo (injury), Sean Lee (injury), Carr (performance), and Witten (age). The Cowboys have shown no hesitation to exercise this option in the past and I expect that trend will continue, though I think they might want to “start the clock” on some of the money owed to Brandon Carr and Tony Romo just in case their level of play goes south quickly.

3.       Letting some veteran’s go

With this team’s limited depth and shaky draft track record (though remarkably better under Will McClay’s tenure), letting starters walk has not been this team’s usual “process.” Candidates in this category include Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray, Doug Free, Ron Leary, Cole Beasley, Rolando McClain, Justin Durant, Bruce Carter, Sterling Moore and Henry Melton is they exercise his out clause. We will address this in the next section.

Phase #2: Free Agency/Team Needs

Once the money is available, the next issue is how to spend it. The Cowboys have some big names on the verge of hitting free agency and also need to improve the roster in order to get over the hump of playoff contender to championship level. Here’s a list of their pending free agents, again courtesy of www.overthecap.com

Player	Pos.	Team	Type	Current Avg./Year
Doug Free	RT	Cowboys	UFA	$3,500,000
Dez Bryant	WR	Cowboys	UFA	$2,362,100
Anthony Spencer	43DE	Cowboys	UFA	$1,500,000
Jermey Parnell	RT	Cowboys	UFA	$1,354,363
Bruce Carter	ILB	Cowboys	UFA	$1,213,650
Justin Durant	43OLB	Cowboys	UFA	$1,200,000
Josh Brent	DT	Cowboys	UFA	$745,000
DeMarco Murray	RB	Cowboys	UFA	$743,360
Claude Spillman	S	Cowboys	UFA	$730,000
Tony Hills	T	Cowboys	RFA	$730,000
Rolando McClain	ILB	Cowboys	UFA	$700,000
George Selvie	43DE	Cowboys	UFA	$680,000
Nick Hayden	DT	Cowboys	UFA	$680,000
Sterling Moore	CB	Cowboys	UFA	$600,000
Tyler Clutts	RB	Cowboys	UFA	$600,000
Dwayne Harris	WR	Cowboys	UFA	$545,015
Thaddeus Gibson	43DE	Cowboys	RFA	$525,000
Micah Pellerin	CB	Cowboys	ERFA	$495,000
Cole Beasley	WR	Cowboys	RFA	$480,500
Darrion Weems	OL	Cowboys	RFA	$480,000
Lance Dunbar	RB	Cowboys	RFA	$480,000
Ronald Leary	LG	Cowboys	RFA	$455,000

So here is my opinion of the needs of this team going into 2015 in no particular order:

-          Backup QB

-          Running Back (2)

-          Wide Receiver (2)

-          Blocking Tight End

-          Right Tackle (2)

-          Left Guard

-          Defensive End

-          Linebacker (2)

-          Cornerback (2)

Without looking at the rest of NFL free agency (too many variables and too little money to depend on), here is my plan for answering the Cowboys needs though free agency. Remember, no team can fill every spot with a probowlers. It’s about getting the most out of the available resources in a realistic way. The Draft will be addressed in section 3:

1.       Sign Dez – I know there is much concern about his off-field life, but a true playmaking WR is not as easy to find as some think and is a necessity in today’s pass-happy NFL. I’d be shocked if Dez is wearing any other jersey than a blue 88 next year.

2.       Address RB, either through Murray or Adrian Peterson – The wear and tear that Murray went through this season does not bode well for his career long-term. However, letting the MVP of your previous season walk for nothing won’t make fans happy. We all know about Jerry’s “flirtations” with Peterson prior to his suspension. I think the Cowboys should sign one of these two RBs, probably whichever one comes cheaper.

3.       Sign either Free or Parnell, let the other go – Doug Free and Jeremy Parnell are basically the same player and thus interchangeable. Whichever one takes the better deal I’d sign, then look to sign a backup swing OT on the cheap

4.       Sign Ron Leary to a short term deal – Leary is a monster on run-blocking and a liability in pass-protection. In addition, Leary came into the league with balky knees which is why he went undrafted. Bring him back on the cheap for continuity only and look to upgrade their next year.

5.       Of LBs Durant, McClain and Carter sign 2 cheapest – With the hopeful return of Sean Lee (finger crossed) and the emergence of super-sub Hitchens, The Cowboys need at least 2 starters and a quality backup. McClain has been a find, but might want to cash in on his success. Carter has proven serviceable on the strong side and might be had on a 1 year “prove it” contract. Durant was the team’s best LB prior to injury and has hopefully found a home in Marinelli’s D. Sign the cheapest 2 and let the other walk, addressing that position further in the draft.

6.       Wait til the draft – After these moves, I might wait until the draft to fill in the gaps. Guys like Hayden, Selvie, Moore, Dunbar and Brent can be brought back or replaced at minimum costs.

Phase #3: The Draft

If the offseason breaks as above, the needs for the Cowboys heading into the draft on April 30^th in Chicago will look like this:

-          Backup/Developmental QB

-          Defensive End

-          Cornerback

-          Linebacker

-          Right Tackle

Generally, I think going into the draft you want to have 3-4 real positions to fill. Your 1^st round pick should be a day one starter or immediate contributor (except for a QB), your 2^nd and 3^rd rounders should provide premium depth in rotation and develop into starters and your 4^th and 5^th rounders are more developmental or have flaws that can be addressed. The order in which these needs are addressed then becomes a function of draft position, positional strength and value. Being able to get quality at each pick is the primary goal, though sometimes that means taking value over position or maneuvering to get in the best talent tier.

Looking at the 2015, it is very difficult to assess position strength without knowing which underclassmen will declare. In recent years, the overwhelming number of junior or even RS sophomore declarations have dominating the early rounds and I don’t expect that trend to decrease.

In part two of this post, I will take a harder look at the players that may be available in the draft and their evaluations as of today. As we see every year, player’s stock can rise and fall quite a bit before draft night, but it’s good to get a rough estimate before the process begins.